Trump Lands in Beijing Today. Here’s What the Market Is Watching — and What’s at Stake.

Today is the day markets have circled on the calendar for weeks. President Donald Trump touches down in Beijing on May 14, beginning a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping that represents the most consequential U.S.–China meeting since Trump’s own visit to the Forbidden City in November 2017. The S&P 500 topped 7,300 for the first time ever last week and has capped a six-week-long advance — in part because markets have been pricing in a diplomatic breakthrough at this summit.

The question now is whether reality matches the expectation. With trade, tariffs, Iran, Taiwan, AI chips, and rare earth minerals all on the table, the range of possible outcomes is wide — and so is the potential market impact in either direction.

Where Markets Stand Going In

The Five Issues on the Table

Tariffs & Trade: The Deliverable Everyone Expects

The most likely outcome from Beijing is a headline trade announcement — almost certainly a combination of Boeing aircraft orders and agricultural purchase commitments. China experts anticipate Trump and Xi may announce agreements such as Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products or Boeing aircraft, potentially including orders for 500 737 MAX jets and dozens of widebody planes. These deals follow the pattern of the Busan summit in October 2025, which produced soybean purchase commitments that China has largely honored.

For the stock market, a splashy purchase announcement would be broadly positive — a visible win for Trump that extends the equity rally into the back half of May, even if the strategic substance is limited.

The Strait of Hormuz: The Wildcard That Moves Everything

The single biggest macro variable hanging over this summit and global markets is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s closure of the strait has spiked oil prices, stranded Chinese ships, and driven U.S. gas prices toward $5 per gallon. China has a direct economic interest in resolution here — half of its crude oil imports are shipped from the Middle East through that strait.

AI Chips: Jensen Huang’s Seat at the Table

The most watched tech-specific angle is whether AI chip export policy surfaces — and what Jensen Huang’s last-minute addition to the delegation signals. As we reported yesterday, Huang was initially excluded, then added at the last minute and photographed boarding Air Force One in Alaska. The reversal signals chip policy is at least adjacent to the summit agenda.

A meaningful chip deal remains a low-probability outcome from a single meeting. But any positive signal — a working group commitment, a timeline for review of H200 access — would be enough to move NVDA sharply. Nvidia’s China market share has fallen from over 90% to essentially zero, and Huang has valued the frozen opportunity at $50 billion annually.

The Three Market Scenarios

The Bottom Line

The Trump-Xi summit is the most market-relevant geopolitical event of the week — possibly the quarter. Markets have already priced in a modest positive outcome, which means the risk is asymmetric: a genuine breakthrough drives equities meaningfully higher, while a disappointing outcome or Taiwan stumble could trigger a sharp pullback from elevated all-time-high levels.

The base case — a limited deal with purchase commitments and vague cooperation language — is already mostly in the price. That points to a hold-and-watch posture today, with attention then quickly pivoting to the next major catalyst: Nvidia’s Q1 2027 earnings on May 20.

Watch the Strait of Hormuz. Watch any Taiwan language. And watch what Jensen Huang walks out of Beijing saying.