SpaceX IPO: With Bid/Ask Around $169 Before Trading, Where Could SPCX Open?
SpaceX is going public today, June 12, 2026, in what is officially the largest IPO in history — and the price action before the opening bell has already made headlines on its own. The company priced its IPO at $135 per share after the close on June 11, implying a valuation of roughly $1.75–$1.78 trillion. But the real story this morning is what is happening in the pre-market: indicative bid/ask levels and crypto-linked perpetual futures have been trading well above the IPO price, with quotes seen as high as $169–$176 before the stock has even started trading on Nasdaq. Here is what that gap means and what it suggests about where SPCX could open.
The Numbers: $135 IPO Price, $1.75 Trillion Valuation
SpaceX sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion — more capital than all U.S. IPOs combined in 2024 and 2025. The deal was led by Goldman Sachs among a syndicate of 21 underwriters. Unlike a typical mega-cap IPO, where retail investors might get access to 10% of the float, SpaceX allocated approximately 30% of shares to individual investors through Robinhood, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, SoFi, and E*TRADE. Demand was extraordinary: the order book reportedly attracted more than $250 billion against the $75 billion raise — roughly 3.5x oversubscribed. That kind of demand imbalance is exactly the setup that produces a large first-day pop, because far more buyers want shares at $135 than there are shares available, and those buyers will need to compete for stock once it starts trading freely.
What the $169 Pre-Market Bid/Ask Is Telling Us
Before SPCX shares open on Nasdaq, there is no official pre-market trading the way there is for an already-listed stock. Instead, price discovery for SpaceX this morning has come from two sources: indicative quotes from the IPO’s designated market maker and stabilization agent, and crypto-linked perpetual futures contracts (SPCX-USDC) trading on platforms like Hyperliquid. Both have been pointing in the same direction — up, and significantly.
Reports this morning placed the SPCX-USDC perpetual contract trading around $172–$176 on Hyperliquid, roughly 27–30% above the $135 IPO price, with 24-hour volume exceeding $320 million and open interest above $290 million. Separately, indicative pricing ahead of the official open has been cited around $175. A bid/ask quote around $169 sits within that range — slightly below the most bullish crypto-derivative indications but still representing a roughly 25% premium to the IPO price. The fact that multiple independent price-discovery mechanisms — institutional stabilization quotes and retail-driven crypto perps — are converging in the high $160s to mid $170s is a strong signal that the opening trade will land meaningfully above $135, likely in the $165–$180 range, absent a last-minute shift in order flow.
How IPO Opening Prices Actually Get Set
It is worth understanding the mechanics here, because SpaceX’s opening price is not simply “whatever the first trade happens to be.” Nasdaq uses a price discovery auction process for new listings. Underwriters and the designated market maker collect indications of interest from buyers and sellers in the pre-open period, and the stock does not begin trading until the stabilization agent (in this case, part of the Goldman Sachs-led syndicate) is satisfied that the order book has enough two-sided volume to support an orderly market. This is why SpaceX’s first trade may occur later than the standard 9:30 AM ET market open — the process can take anywhere from a few minutes to over an hour for a deal of this size and demand profile.
The opening price that results from this auction reflects the price at which the maximum number of shares can be matched between buyers and sellers. Given that demand at $135 was roughly 3.5x supply, and that crypto-derivative markets and institutional indications are both clustering between $165 and $176, the auction-clearing price is likely to land in that same zone. A print near $169–$175 would represent a first-day gain of approximately 25–30% from the IPO price — a strong but not extreme pop for a deal this oversubscribed. Some bankers quoted in early coverage flagged $175 specifically as an early indication, which lines up closely with the high end of the perpetual futures range.
The Bull Case for a Strong Open
Several factors support the case that SPCX opens well above $135 and holds those gains, at least initially. First, the float is unusually small relative to the company’s total valuation — a classic setup for outsized first-day moves when demand is this strong. Second, SpaceX has a near-term catalyst that few IPOs can claim: the company is on a path to Nasdaq 100 inclusion within approximately 15 trading days of listing, according to early analyst notes, which would force passive index funds to buy shares regardless of price. Third, employee participation has been notably strong — COO Gwynne Shotwell said more than half of SpaceX’s 22,000 employees bought additional stock in the offering, totaling almost $1 billion, signaling internal confidence even with the standard post-IPO lockup in place. Fourth, the broader AI infrastructure investment theme has created enormous appetite for any company positioned at the intersection of space, satellite internet (Starlink), and next-generation compute — SpaceX sits squarely in that zone.
The Bear Case and Key Risks
The skepticism is real and well-documented. SpaceX posted full-year 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, up 33% from $14.1 billion in 2024 — strong top-line growth. But the company reported a GAAP net loss of $4.94 billion for 2025, and that loss accelerated to $4.28 billion in Q1 2026 alone. The accumulated deficit now stands at $41.3 billion. On an adjusted EBITDA basis, SpaceX was profitable — about $6.6 billion in 2025 — but the gap between EBITDA profitability and a multi-billion-dollar GAAP loss is driven by real cash costs: stock-based compensation, Starlink constellation depreciation, and AI infrastructure capital expenditure.
At a $1.75 trillion valuation against $18.7 billion in revenue, SpaceX is priced at roughly 94x trailing sales — a multiple that assumes years of hypergrowth and successful monetization of Starlink, Starship, and whatever AI infrastructure ambitions the company is building toward. Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly criticized the SEC for approving the offering, calling the valuation numbers “nonsensical” in a statement ahead of the debut — though as our coverage notes, such objections do not have the power to delay or block an already-approved IPO. The official 12-month analyst price target average sits at $139.33, with a high estimate of $190 and a low estimate of $63 — one of the widest target dispersions of any major listing, reflecting genuine disagreement about what SpaceX is actually worth as a standalone public company separate from Elon Musk’s other ventures.
What to Watch Today and in the Coming Sessions
The first 30–90 minutes of trading will be critical and likely highly volatile, as the market searches for a structural price level once the artificial scarcity of the IPO allocation gives way to free trading. Traders should watch where the stock settles after the initial price discovery auction completes — a sustained hold above $165–$170 would confirm the pre-market indications were accurate, while a fade back toward $135–$150 would suggest the crypto-perpetual pricing was driven by retail enthusiasm that institutional sellers are happy to supply into.
Beyond today, watch for confirmation of Nasdaq 100 inclusion timing, any updates on the EchoStar and AST SpaceMobile positions that rallied sharply on SpaceX-adjacent enthusiasm this week (EchoStar owns an estimated 3% stake in SpaceX and surged 11% on the news), and the company’s first quarterly report as a public entity, which will be the first real test of whether the post-IPO valuation can be supported by the underlying growth trajectory in Starlink subscriptions, launch cadence, and any disclosed AI infrastructure revenue.
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This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. IPO stocks are subject to extreme volatility, particularly in the first days and weeks of trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.
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