Meta Platforms (META) Earnings Preview: What to Expect From Wednesday’s Q3 Report
Wall Street expects strong ad revenue growth to continue, with 2026-2028 AI capex guidance likely to drive the stock’s reaction more than the headline beat.
Meta Platforms reports third-quarter 2026 results after the market close on Wednesday, October 21, the same day as Tesla. It’s one of the headline reports in Wall Street’s biggest earnings week of the quarter, with more than 30 S&P 100 companies reporting — see the full calendar on our Corporate Earnings This Week tracker.
What to Watch
Estimates for Meta’s EPS range from roughly $5.94 to $6.58 depending on the source, with consensus revenue clustering around $63.3 billion. The year-over-year comparison is messy on the bottom line: Meta’s reported Q3 2025 diluted EPS was just $1.05 because of a one-time, non-cash $15.93 billion tax charge tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — excluding that charge, adjusted EPS would have been $7.25. Revenue, unaffected by the tax item, grew 26% year over year to $51.24 billion in Q3 2025, and Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan expects another 24.3% year-over-year revenue increase this quarter, near the high end of Meta’s own guidance. The number investors care about most, though, is capital expenditure guidance for 2026 through 2028: Sheridan has kept his 2026 and 2027 capex estimates above Street consensus and raised his 2028 estimate, while projecting lower capex from 2029-2031 as he expects recent AI infrastructure spending to be “pulled forward” into the next 18-24 months.
Analyst Estimates and Price Targets
The Street consensus rating is Strong Buy, based on 39 Buy ratings and six Hold ratings, with an average price target of $827.83 — about 12% above current levels near $654. Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan raised his price target to $860 from $725 ahead of the print, keeping a Buy rating, while Guggenheim’s Michael Morris raised his target to $850 from $700, also Buy. Shares are up more than 12% year to date heading into the report, reflecting continued confidence in Meta’s ad business even as AI spending concerns have weighed on sentiment toward the broader sector in recent weeks.
Why It Matters
Meta’s report lands the same day as Tesla’s Q3 results, making Wednesday, October 21 the single most consequential day of this earnings season for mega-cap tech. Meta’s AI capex guidance in particular will be read as a referendum on the broader AI-infrastructure buildout, especially after last week’s CoreWeave bond-yield spike raised questions about how sustainably that spending is being financed. A confident capex outlook from one of AI’s biggest spenders could help calm those fears; a cautious one could reinforce them heading into the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting.
For the full recap once results are out, and for coverage of other companies reporting this week, see our Earnings coverage, the META Stock Fact Sheet, and the Stock Fact Sheets hub.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Analyst estimates and price targets are subject to change; consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
