JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Earnings Preview: What to Expect From Tuesday’s Q3 Report
JPMorgan kicks off bank earnings season before Tuesday’s open, with Wall Street looking for roughly 17% profit growth even as near-24-year-high Treasury yields pressure the sector.
Update: JPMorgan Chase has reported — read the full recap →
JPMorgan Chase reports third-quarter 2026 results before Tuesday’s opening bell, with a conference call to follow at 8:30 a.m. ET. It’s the first of seven S&P 100 companies reporting that morning alone — see the full lineup in our Corporate Earnings This Week tracker — and as the largest U.S. bank by assets, JPMorgan traditionally sets the tone for how the rest of the sector trades through the week.
What to Watch
Analysts are looking for earnings per share of $5.93, up about 17% from $5.07 a year ago, on revenue of roughly $51.2 billion, up 10.3%. The stock has pulled back more than 6% over the past month even as it remains up modestly year to date, with options markets pricing a swing of about 3.6% in either direction after the print — in line with the bank’s average post-earnings move of 2.4% over its last four reports. The key swing factors: whether markets revenue (up 35% to $12.1 billion last quarter, with equities trading up 86%) keeps pace with the blockbuster run rate of recent quarters, how net interest income holds up against the 10-year Treasury yield’s climb to 5.24% — a level last seen in 2002 — and what CEO Jamie Dimon and CFO Jeremy Barnum say about expense guidance, credit quality in consumer lending, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s rate path following this year’s historic run-up in long-term yields.
Analyst Estimates and Price Targets
Wall Street is split between conviction in JPMorgan’s franchise strength and caution on its premium valuation heading into the print. TD Cowen’s Scott Siefers resumed coverage with a Hold rating and a $370 price target, calling JPMorgan “the strongest, most complete, and self-reinforcing U.S. banking franchise” but arguing the stock’s premium already reflects that strength. UBS’s Erika Najarian reiterated a Buy rating while trimming her price target to $395 from $400, modeling third-quarter EPS of $5.80 — slightly below the Street — on higher expense assumptions, while projecting full-year 2026 net interest income of $105.7 billion and raising her 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates to $24.11 and $24.80, respectively. Across the Street, the consensus sits at 10 Buy and 8 Hold ratings, a “Moderate Buy,” with an average price target of $379.06 — roughly 14% above recent trading levels.
The debate largely comes down to whether capital-markets and trading momentum can outrun rising deposit costs and expense growth. A beat on markets revenue similar to last quarter’s would likely support the bullish case; any sign that higher yields are compressing net interest margins faster than expected would feed the more cautious view.
Why It Matters
JPMorgan’s results effectively open bank earnings season, with Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all reporting the same morning and Bank of America and Morgan Stanley following Wednesday — see our full breakdown in Bank Earnings Season Kicks Off. The read-through matters well beyond financials: strong trading and dealmaking revenue would reinforce the case that capital markets activity remains healthy even as the Federal Reserve navigates historically high long-term borrowing costs, while a disappointing net-interest-income outlook would add to concerns already circulating about the stock’s premium valuation relative to the rest of the sector.
For the full recap once results are out, and for our ongoing coverage of the bank, see our JPM stock fact sheet, the Earnings coverage category, and the Stock Fact Sheets hub.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Analyst estimates and price targets are subject to change; consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
