Last updated: October 26, 2026
Bitcoin extended a five-day losing streak to around $80,000 Monday, dragging Ethereum, XRP, and the broader crypto market to multi-week lows as traders digest escalating Middle East tensions and brace for a Federal Reserve rate decision Wednesday that most now expect to be a hold rather than a hike.
Bitcoin’s Five-Day Slide Meets a Pivotal Fed Week
Geopolitical risk and fading hike bets are combining to push crypto to its lowest levels in over a month, just as the Fed prepares its Wednesday decision.
A Five-Day Slide Driven by Geopolitics
Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 over the weekend and remained pinned near that level Monday morning, down for a fifth consecutive session and roughly 36% off its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025. The latest leg lower followed reports that the U.S. is evacuating personnel from embassies and military bases across the Middle East, citing intelligence that Iran is preparing attacks on American targets — an escalation beyond earlier, more limited staff withdrawals in Saudi Arabia. Ether fell alongside Bitcoin to around $2,323, trading below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, while XRP slipped under its own $1.30 support level to roughly $1.28. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 50 from a monthly average near 74, reflecting a shift away from the risk-on sentiment that dominated crypto markets through most of the past month.
ETF Outflows Resume After a Brief Inflow Streak
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $635.6 million on October 22, according to Farside Investors, ending a three-session inflow streak that had brought in roughly $1.07 billion between October 19 and 21. BlackRock’s IBIT led the exodus with $254.1 million in outflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC at $217.5 million and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB at $109.4 million. Glassnode data cited in crypto markets this week puts the $80,000 level close to the average cost basis for corporate Bitcoin treasury holdings — a level some traders are watching as a potential line in the sand for forced selling if it breaks decisively.
The Fed’s Wednesday Decision Looms
Crypto’s slide comes just two days ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 28 rate decision, where prediction markets and futures pricing put the odds of the Fed holding its benchmark rate at 3.75%-4.00% near 91-94%, with only a small chance of a hike. That’s a notable shift from earlier in October, when a hotter-than-expected September CPI report (3.7% year over year, versus 3.6% consensus) briefly revived hike bets before Fed officials signaled they weren’t in a rush to move again so soon after September’s hike, the central bank’s first increase since 2023. Futures markets are now pricing roughly 70% odds of a quarter-point hike at the Fed’s December 8-9 meeting instead, with economists widely expecting that move. The 2-year Treasury yield, which tracks near-term policy expectations, sits at 4.686% — above the top of the current target range — while the 10-year hovers near 5%, both reflecting a market still pricing in a higher-for-longer rate path than it was a few months ago.
Why It Matters
Crypto’s pullback is unfolding alongside one of the busiest weeks of the quarter for equities, with the Fed decision Wednesday sandwiched between Tuesday’s bank and industrial earnings and Wednesday-Thursday reports from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon. A hawkish surprise from the Fed — or a further escalation in the Middle East — could extend crypto’s slide, while any dovish language around the December meeting could help stabilize sentiment. See our prior coverage of Bitcoin’s ETF outflow streak and September’s hot CPI report for more on the inflation backdrop driving the Fed’s deliberations, and visit our Stock Fact Sheets hub for coverage of this week’s biggest earnings reports.
Related Coverage on FactSheets.com
- Bitcoin Holds $81K as Spot ETFs Log a Third Straight Week of Outflows
- The Fed Just Hiked Rates for the First Time Since 2023
- September CPI Comes In Hot at 3.7%
- BGDE (Big Digital Energy) Stock Fact Sheet
- More Crypto Coverage →
- Stock Fact Sheets Hub
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; figures cited above are as of the date noted and subject to rapid change. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
