Nebius Just Posted 684% Revenue Growth. Here’s Everything Behind the NBIS Surge.
Nebius Group reported Q1 2026 revenue of $399M — a 684% year-over-year jump — crushing every estimate. We break down every key number, the $27B Meta deal, the new Pennsylvania AI factory, and what it means for NBIS investors.
▲ NBIS +12% premarket · Q1 revenue $399M vs $375M est · 684% YoY growth · Pennsylvania AI factory secured · May 13, 2026
Earnings · NASDAQ: NBIS · AI Infrastructure
Nebius Just Posted 684% Revenue Growth. Here’s Everything Behind the NBIS Surge.
Nebius Group reported Q1 2026 revenue of $399 million — a near-sevenfold jump from a year ago — crushing every estimate on the board. Add a $27 billion Meta deal, a $2 billion Nvidia investment, and a brand-new gigawatt-scale AI factory in Pennsylvania, and you have one of the most eventful earnings reports in the AI infrastructure sector this year.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) is surging more than 12% in premarket trading this morning after the AI cloud company delivered a quarter that exceeded expectations on nearly every metric that matters. Revenue came in at $399 million — a 684% increase from the $50.9 million reported in Q1 2025 — as the company’s GPU-powered AI cloud infrastructure continued to sell out faster than it could be built.
The results were accompanied by a string of announcements that collectively paint the picture of a company scaling at a pace few in the AI infrastructure space have matched: a secured site in Pennsylvania with up to 1.2 gigawatts of power capacity, contracted power guidance raised to more than 4 GW for 2026, a $27 billion multi-year relationship with Meta, and a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia. Here is everything you need to know.
Advertisements
The Numbers: Q1 2026 Earnings Scorecard
Nebius beat estimates across the board in Q1, with the revenue beat being the headline number — but the EPS beat was arguably even more impressive, coming in at a loss of just $0.23 per share versus an expected loss of $0.78.
Q1 Revenue
$399M
vs $375M est — +6.4% beat
YoY Revenue Growth
+684%
from $50.9M in Q1 2025
Adj. EPS
($0.23)
vs ($0.78) est — $0.55 beat
Adj. EPS (Alt)
$2.11
vs ($0.48) in Q1 2025
Net Income
$621.2M
from continuing operations
Adj. EBITDA
$129.5M
~40% margin target on track
Cash from Operations
$2.26B
Strong liquidity swing
Contracted Power (Now)
3.5 GW
Already exceeded prior 3 GW target
New Power Guidance
>4 GW
Raised from >3 GW for 2026
Full Q1 2026 Beat/Miss Scorecard
Earnings Release
Metric
Reported
Estimate
Result
Revenue
$399.0M
$375.1M
Beat +6.4%
EPS (GAAP loss)
($0.23)
($0.78)
Beat by $0.55
Adjusted EBITDA
$129.5M
—
~40% margin
Net Income (cont. ops)
$621.2M
—
Strong swing
Cash from Operations
$2.26B
—
Positive
YoY Revenue Growth
+684%
—
Near-sevenfold
EBIT
Negative
Negative
In Line — Investment phase
The one caveat in the numbers is that EBIT remains negative — deliberately so, as Nebius is in an aggressive investment phase, committing $16 to $20 billion in capital expenditure in 2026 alone. Management has been explicit that EBIT will remain negative for the full year as they race to connect capacity and serve committed demand.
Advertisements
The Meta Deal: $27 Billion Over Multiple Years
The single biggest announcement embedded in the Q1 release is the scale of Nebius’s relationship with Meta Platforms. What started as a $3 billion agreement in November 2025 has expanded into a $27 billion multi-year commitment.
The Meta Relationship — By the Numbers
March 2026 expansion: Nebius announced a $27 billion multi-year deal with Meta, providing $12 billion of dedicated capacity across multiple Nebius locations globally.
Additional upside: Meta committed to purchasing up to $15 billion in additional compute capacity across select upcoming Nebius clusters during the contract period — on top of the $12 billion base commitment.
Already live: Management confirmed the Meta contract is delivered and live — not just signed. Revenue from this relationship is already flowing through the income statement.
Microsoft too: A separate Microsoft deal has tranches being delivered through 2026. Management stressed that the company’s $7–$9 billion ARR medium-term target is not dependent on any single new mega-deal — these are already in the pipeline.
The Nvidia Investment: $2 Billion and a Strategic Partnership
Nebius also disclosed during Q1 that Nvidia made a $2 billion strategic investment in the company, alongside a partnership to develop and deploy next-generation hyperscale cloud infrastructure for the AI era. For Nebius, the investment is more than capital — it is a supplier relationship with the manufacturer of the world’s most sought-after AI chips, potentially giving Nebius preferential GPU allocation as it races to connect capacity.
“Demand is unprecedented. We are sold out. We are building as fast as we possibly can, and we are raising our contracted power guidance again because the market is not slowing down.” — Arkady Volozh, CEO & Founder, Nebius Group, Q1 2026 Earnings Letter
The Pennsylvania Factory: Nebius’s Biggest U.S. Site
Alongside the earnings, Nebius announced it has secured up to 1.2 gigawatts of power and land for a new, company-owned AI factory in Pennsylvania. This follows the recent groundbreaking of a gigawatt-scale facility in Independence, Missouri, and a 310 MW AI factory under construction in Finland.
Nebius Global Buildout Snapshot
Pennsylvania (new): Up to 1.2 GW secured — largest announced U.S. site to date. Owned, not leased.
Independence, Missouri: Gigawatt-scale AI factory, groundbreaking held in May 2026. Second major U.S. site.
Finland: 310 MW AI factory under construction. Announced March 2026.
Total contracted power: Now at 3.5 GW — already exceeding the prior 3 GW year-end target, with new guidance raised to >4 GW for 2026. Management expects 800 MW–1 GW to be connected and available during 2026.
CapEx commitment: $16–$20 billion in 2026 infrastructure spend. Approximately 60% funded by existing cash, operating cash flows, and committed financing.
Advertisements
Full-Year 2026 Guidance
FY2026 Revenue Guidance
$3.0–$3.4B
Midpoint: $3.2B
Adj. EBITDA Margin
~40%
Target maintained
Medium-Term ARR Target
$7–$9B
By end of 2026
Connected Power (2026E)
800 MW–1 GW
During 2026
Total CapEx 2026
$16–$20B
Aggressive expansion phase
EBIT Outlook
Negative
Full year — investment phase
Bull vs. Bear
⚠ The Bear Case
EBIT remains negative for the full year — Nebius is burning capital at a $16–$20B annual rate with no near-term path to GAAP profitability
Valuation is stretched — price-to-book of 9.75x vs sector average of 3.9x, and a TTM P/E of 441x
Execution risk is enormous: connecting 800 MW–1 GW of capacity in a single calendar year while integrating Eigen AI and Clarifai simultaneously is a tall order
Heavy dependence on a small number of hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft) — concentration risk if either slows AI infrastructure spend
✓ The Bull Case
684% revenue growth is not a rounding error — it reflects real, contracted demand from some of the largest AI spenders on the planet
Sold out through Q1 and raising power guidance again — demand is visibly outpacing supply, the strongest possible signal for a capacity business
$27B Meta relationship plus $2B Nvidia investment are not just revenue — they are structural validation from the two biggest names in AI
Analyst median price target of $172 implies significant upside vs current levels; stock has surged 431% over the past year and over 100% YTD
Pennsylvania factory adds 1.2 GW of owned capacity — owned assets carry better long-term economics than leased data center arrangements
The Bottom Line
Nebius is executing at a pace that few AI infrastructure companies have matched. The 684% revenue jump is not a fluke — it reflects a business that was literally sold out before the quarter began, backed by binding multi-year contracts from Meta and Microsoft and a GPU supply relationship with Nvidia. The Q1 numbers validate the thesis that Nebius is not just riding the AI wave but has built genuine infrastructure scale that is difficult to replicate quickly.
The risks are real and should not be dismissed. The valuation is aggressive, the CapEx commitment is enormous, and the path to GAAP profitability runs through years of continued heavy spending. But for investors who believe AI infrastructure capex will remain elevated through 2026 and beyond — and the demand signals from every major hyperscaler suggest it will — Nebius is one of the most direct and highest-velocity ways to play that theme.
The next key data point is Q2 2026 results — specifically whether connected capacity ramps on schedule and whether the ARR trajectory holds toward the $7–$9 billion year-end target.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Sources: Nebius Q1 2026 Earnings Release (Business Wire, May 13, 2026), Quiver Quantitative, Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, StockTitan, Stocktwits. FactSheets.com is not affiliated with Nebius Group N.V. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. · FactSheets.com — May 14, 2026