Oil prices surged Friday after the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched a sweeping strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate prices climbed around 6% on Friday to $72 a barrel as the strikes raised concerns on Wall Street that escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could disrupt Iranian energy supplies. Global benchmark Brent crude rose as much as 10%, hitting its highest level since January. As of noon ET, Brent prices were around $73.50 per barrel.
Lipow Oil Associates President Andy Lipow said the market is particularly concerned that Iran will retaliate by attacking either Israeli or American targets, leading to a major military escalation and potential oil supply disruption.
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“Iran may believe that recent increases in OPEC+ oil supply, which have been far more than the market expected over the last three months, were designed to offset a loss of Iranian oil exports as hostilities ramp up,” Lipow said. He estimated that the loss of Iranian oil to the market could raise prices by up to $7.50 per barrel, but if oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are affected, prices could reach $100.
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Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group, told FOX Business that prices may not spin out of control because there haven’t been any reports of damage to oil infrastructure and “threats in the past by Iran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is probably unlikely.”
“It’s probably pretty clear right now that they don’t have the military with the ability to do that. That’s especially true after some of their top leaders from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were killed,” Flynn, also a FOX Business Network contributor, said.
In situations like this, prices usually “overreact in the beginning” before cooling down, according to Flynn.
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“It’s going to be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of days regardless, though this probably means that oil prices will be more fairly priced as we move forward,” he added.
