Netflix (NFLX) Earnings Preview: What to Expect From Tuesday’s Q3 Report
Wall Street expects double-digit subscriber and revenue growth to continue, with options markets pricing a sizable post-earnings swing.
Update: Netflix has reported — read the full recap →
Netflix reports third-quarter 2026 results after the market close on Tuesday, October 20, with a conference call to follow at 6:00 p.m. ET. It’s the first of this week’s marquee reports — see the full list in our Corporate Earnings This Week tracker — and kicks off a stretch that also includes Tesla and Meta on Wednesday.
What to Watch
Consensus calls for EPS of roughly $0.83, implying growth of more than 40% from $0.587 in the same quarter last year, on revenue near $13.0 billion — up about 9-10% year over year from $11.98 billion. Analysts are modeling roughly 13-15 million net paid subscriber additions for the quarter, with average revenue per member expected to grow 5-8% year over year as recent price increases and the ad-supported tier continue to ramp. Investors will be watching for commentary on ad-tier monetization progress, live-sports and events programming, and whether password-sharing crackdown tailwinds are fully normalized into the subscriber base at this point.
Analyst Estimates and Price Targets
Sentiment is broadly positive heading into the print: of 58 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Strong Buy and 29 rate it Buy, with 15 at Hold — about 74% rate it Buy or higher. The average price target sits near $82.50, implying roughly 17% upside from current levels around $70. Goldman Sachs holds a Buy rating with an $85 target set in September, and JPMorgan raised its target to $88 (Overweight) in late September. Not everyone is as bullish: UBS downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy back in August with a $75 target, citing valuation after the stock’s run. The stock has traded roughly between $66.54 and $83.60 over the past 90 days, giving a sense of the range options traders are pricing for a post-earnings move.
Why It Matters
Netflix’s results set the tone for a week in which more than 200 companies report earnings, including Tesla and Meta one day later. A strong subscriber and ad-revenue beat would reinforce the idea that streaming and digital-ad spending remain resilient even as inflation concerns and AI-financing jitters weigh on broader market sentiment heading into the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting. A miss or soft guide, on the other hand, could add to the market’s already cautious tone after last week’s selloff.
For the full recap once results are out, and for coverage of other companies reporting this week, see our Earnings coverage and the Stock Fact Sheets hub.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Analyst estimates and price targets are subject to change; consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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