NBIS Stock Sinks Again — Why Nebius Keeps Failing to Hold Its Gains
Last updated: July 16, 2026 · ← Back to Stock Fact Sheets
NASDAQ: NBIS
Nebius Group N.V.
AI cloud infrastructure · Amsterdam, NL · Re-listed Oct 2024Today’s move
-12% to -14.5%Q1 revenue
$399MRevenue growth
+684% YoYAdj. net loss (Q1)
-$100.3MFY26 capex plan
$20B–$25BInsider selling (90d)
$140M+P/E ratio
~96xKey support level
$190 (failed today)Revenue (quarterly)
Capex guidance: initial vs. raised ($B)
Company snapshot
| HQ | Amsterdam, Netherlands |
| Re-listed | Oct 2024 (ex-Yandex) |
| 1-year return (even after pullback) | ~+449% |
| FY26 rev. guide | $3.0B – $3.4B |
| Revenue meaningfully ramps | Not until early 2027 |
| Free cash flow | Negative |
| Valuation screen score | 0 of 6 (Simply Wall St) |
Today’s pressure points
| Competitive threat | Meta "Meta Compute" plans |
| CEO stock sales (90d) | Arkadiy Volozh, ~$11M |
| CTO stock sales (90d) | Danila Shtan, ~$4M |
| Infra chief sales (90d) | Andrey Korolenko, ~$8M |
| Pattern | Repeated “sell the news” |
| Related article | Today’s selloff analysis → |
Analyst price targets
Bank of America
$280
Buy
Citi
$287
Buy
Northland
$248
Outperform
Morgan Stanley
$144
Equal Weight
Street mean
~$203
Below recent highs
↗ Bull case
- 684% revenue growth remains the fastest in the neocloud group
- NVIDIA $2B stake + 8.3% ownership signals strategic alignment
- ~$46-50B combined backlog from Meta and Microsoft
- Nasdaq-100 inclusion forces passive-fund buying
- New $1B+ Reflection AI compute deal adds to contracted revenue
- Capital-light partnership structure could reduce balance-sheet risk over time
↘ Bear case
- Stock fell 12-14.5% today, unable to hold the $190 support level
- FY26 capex guidance raised again to $20-25B; meaningful revenue not until early 2027
- Negative free cash flow with a small number of large, concentrated contracts
- $140M+ in insider selling across the CEO, CTO, and infrastructure chief in 90 days
- Meta’s “Meta Compute” plans remain a persistent competitive overhang
- Trades at ~96x P/E vs. ~27x software-industry average; scores 0 of 6 on one valuation screen
- Repeated “sell the news” pattern suggests fragile investor conviction
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Financials from Q1 2026 earnings; price and selloff commentary as of July 16, 2026. Price data not shown — check live quote for current price.
Nebius Group (NBIS) — Company Overview
Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) is an Amsterdam-headquartered AI cloud infrastructure company that builds full-stack GPU infrastructure, cloud platforms, and developer tools for AI workloads. A spinout of Yandex — Russia’s largest search engine — Nebius was restructured and re-listed on Nasdaq in October 2024 after divesting its Russian operations. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has described Nebius as one of the most important AI infrastructure companies in the world, backing that with a $2 billion investment for an 8.3% stake in March 2026.
Q1 2026 Earnings Summary
Nebius reported Q1 2026 revenue of $399 million — a 684% increase year-over-year and a 75% sequential jump. AI cloud revenue reached $389.7 million, up 841% year-over-year. Adjusted EPS came in at -$0.33, beating the -$0.73 consensus by nearly 55%. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $129.5 million. For the full earnings breakdown: Nebius Just Posted 684% Revenue Growth — Here’s Everything Behind the NBIS Surge.
The NVIDIA Backstory
In March 2026, NVIDIA invested $2 billion for an 8.3% equity stake in Nebius — giving Nebius preferential access to the latest GPU generations and a powerful institutional endorsement. See our May 14 market recap for how this drove the post-earnings surge.
The Bloom Energy Power Deal
On May 21, 2026, Nebius announced a $2.6 billion, 10-year agreement with Bloom Energy to deploy solid oxide fuel cell power systems across its data center footprint. The first 328 MW project is expected operational this year. This solves the single biggest bottleneck in AI data center expansion — grid power availability — by enabling on-site behind-the-meter power independent of utility timelines.
Revenue Visibility: The $50B Backlog
Meta Platforms committed $27 billion and Microsoft committed $19.4 billion, creating a ~$50 billion combined backlog. Management targets $7–$9 billion ARR by year-end 2026 and ~40% adjusted EBITDA margin as nine new data centers come online. See our earlier NBIS investor fact sheet for the company’s earlier growth trajectory.
Subsidiaries Beyond AI Cloud
Nebius owns Avride (autonomous vehicles), TripleTen (edtech), and holds stakes in Toloka (data labeling) and ClickHouse (open-source database). It also acquired Eigen AI for $643 million. These subsidiaries are currently loss-making but represent long-term growth optionality beyond GPU rental.
Related Coverage on FactSheets.com
- Nebius Just Posted 684% Revenue Growth — Here’s Everything Behind the NBIS Surge
- Market Recap May 14 — AAOI, NBIS, AAPL, NVDA
- Trending Stocks Today: ORCL, NBIS, NVDA, and CRWV
- NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Earnings: $81.6B Revenue, $91B Q2 Guide
- CRWV — CoreWeave Stock Fact Sheet
This fact sheet is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data as of July 16, 2026.
